A Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic Between Azerbaijan And Nigeria Using SIR Model

Author(s): Adeoke OA., Gasimli BU, Valiyeva A, Khalilov RI, and Huseynova NF

Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) is the latest infectious disease to have stormed the world all at once. This study aimed to simulate and compare the trends of the Covid-19 epidemic between Azerbaijan and Nigeria using SIR model. Data about the number of infections, recoveries, and deaths were obtained from Azerbaijan’s Report News Agency and the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) respectively. Applying data from February 2020 to May 2022, we predicted the epidemic on a case-by-case national basis over a period of twenty-seven months. We optimized the parameters using the forward Euler method and created an algorithm on Excel software. Our simulation showed Covid-19 epidemic in Azerbaijan peaked on 11 September 2020 when 37.8% of its population was infected, while in Nigeria it peaked on 14 January 2021 when 25.2% of its population was infected. The difference in peak time is most likely due to higher temperatures limiting the daily spread of Covid-19 in Nigeria (warmer climate) unlike in Azerbaijan (colder climate).